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Sunday, March 16, 2008

Betting on Mortality

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Betting on Mortality
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by Carl Baydala
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" For the living know that they shall die: but the dead know not any thing, neither have they any more a reward; for the memory of them is forgotten."
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King James Version: Ecclesiastes Chapter 9:5
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I think men become the kind of men they are because of mortality. Was it not Heraclitus who said that " a man's character is his fate. "? Maybe he was talking about how man handles his own mortality. Mortality for me is the notion and realization that I am not going to live forever. Man deals with this problem in numerous ways of course. For some it is of little or no consequence, while, for others, it is an all-consuming thing.

Mortality of course is at the core of concern in the world's great religions. It is in fact, the very reason for the creation of religions in the first place. Man does not know from whence he came, nor does he know what happens after he dies. Religions attempt to explain this problem for him and they help man grapple with his mortality. Mortality is really the understanding and acceptance of the finite nature of human life.

In a way I envy the Christian believer or anyone else who has a religion which attempts to provide life in the hereafter. If I was sure there was a God of some kind then I would most assuredly believe in that entity. I would be a fool not to, I think. Because, if that entity existed I would know that it would be the righteous thing to do in living a good and honest life, knowing that my efforts would be rewarded in the hereafter. A common sense man would take it upon himself to seek out the entity that provides this everlasting life for him.

The problem with modern religion of course is that believing in a God is an act of faith. One does not know if God is real or not; man merely prays and hopes that upon the end of his mortality there will be something else as equally as pleasant. Some sort of Heaven perhaps to make him happy in his eternal life.

But, a thinking man also knows and contemplates his very own mortality. He knows that his life is limited on account of all of the death that he is able to experience about him. He is quite sure that he is destined for the same result as all of the rest. A thinking man, however, might not move so quickly into a religion that promised everlasting life without more proof. Why should a man dedicate himself to an idea and a philosophy that is not guaranteed to produce the intended results? For this man, the idea of faith is a false one to get involved in. No one has ever died and come back to report on the affairs of the after life. It is simply a matter of faith to believe in something like the Christian God, for example. Millions upon millions of humans commit their lives to such beliefs, but there remain many who do not.

Why do some men choose to not get involved in a religion of faith? Well, I can answer that question for you since I am one of those people. I will provide my answer for you and let you be the judge of my decision. You can determine whether or not I am a fool, or a heathen, or misguided, or whatever term you may wish to employ to categorize me. I base my decision on my understanding of mortality, since that is what this short essay is all about. Mortality. This thing is the impetus to my thought and understanding. First of all, let me say that I am a very honest person when it comes to discussing these things. That means that I would like to present you with the most up-to-date information that I can muster up to make you understand just what it is that I am really talking about. For example, some of the leaders or followers of religious orders seem hell bent on acquiring converts to their religion. Well, I am an atheist of sorts and I am not about to try and gain converts to my atheism. I do not want to start a new religion and go through the motions of starting up some grand organization. I am not interested in setting up a business if you will. But, that is exactly what these Christian Fundamentalists are doing if you are paying attention to their methods. So, right away you will be able to determine that I am in a philosophical conflict with this group, and others like them.

My goal is mainly to strengthen the beliefs of other atheists and possibly educate or influence those involved in some mainstream religion. But, from what I have experienced lately it is no easy task to try and unseat a Fundamentalist Christian or Islamic Fundamentalist from his or her beliefs - these people have hardened attitudes and they are stuck in their ways. I don't believe that you can talk to these people in an intelligent manner. And, any good businessman knows that it is not prudent to waste time on someone who is not really interested in what you are trying to sell. They are not going to buy it anyway. My audience may be limited by definition, but that is not going to deter me from my goal in seeking truth and understanding. Perhaps the ideas of the atheists will eventually seep into the culture in a more profound way at some future point in time in a way that is currently unimaginable to most right now.

I love life the way it is set in spite of its uncertainties and whether or not a God exists that will provide everlasting life for me. That is a function of my mortality speaking to you. The Christian says that he is not afraid to die. But, who has the better philosophy when you examine things a little more closely, me or the believers in faith in God? Now, I should confess, and, remember, I am a very honest person as I reported to you above. My confession would be that maybe my atheism is a form of faith also; a faith that what I am doing and thinking is a correct mode of operation as opposed to the methods of the religionists. The Christian is a great rationalist if you are paying attention to his methods. He thinks God works in mysterious ways and that enables him to deal with all of the conflicts in the religion, such as in the Scriptures, for example. So, let us at least afford him some points for his noble efforts. But, that does not mean that he is right at all. His faith is so powerful and he wants to believe. That is how he survives and justifies his religion even though he is presented by detractors and nay sayers all of the time. His faith is virtually unshakeable. This is partly so because he does not want to enter into discussions that get to the heart of religion and what it really is. And, he would certainly not want to know that his religion was essentially created by humans for their own purposes. At least, that is the way that I understand the Christian religion, for example. He would not want to hear these things because he truly believes that a God exists, a God who knows all and who is responsible for the creation of all things imaginable.

As an atheist I take a different approach, however. I take the view that I do not know whether or not a God exists and whether or not I can count on Him for my eternal life. I still belive in my mortality because there is no real evidence that something will overcome and replace this mortal nature for me. It is in fact my very mortality that I have come to know and love with all of my might. It is the only real thing that I can count on. I believe this material essence of my being lays at the core of my being and allows me to be the kind of character that I have become.

The Christian takes a different approach to reality and is even cagey enough to invent something like Pascal's Wager, which is simply a bit of logic that states it is better to believe in God as opposed to not believing in Him. The logic, essentially states that since we don't really know if God is real or not it is better to believe in Him anyway just in case He does exist. Why lose out if you can avoid it and take the risk of not being saved? Well, that bit of logic just reinforces the idea that man is a selfish creature as I have believed all along anyway. Man simply devises ways to justify things that benefit him. The creation of a God is a benefit to him as well as any argument that supports that belief. Well, I go to the races on a frequent basis and I like to think that I know a little bit about risk and odds and the business of winning and losing. I take nothing for granted when I wager at the racetrack, no outcome is certain and that is the way I structure my bets. I use a system and stick to it at all times. And, it also the way I structure my life. In a way, the racetrack is a metaphor for a philosophy of religion. If you have read the writings of Ludwig Feuerbach in his major work " The Essence of Christianity " you will have a feel for what I am talking about. The Christian religion is a monotheistic religion; a belief in one God as opposed to the many, or polytheistic. Judaism, from whence Christianity derives its philosophy, believed in one sole God which became a personal, special God which looked favourably upon one group of people, namely the Hebrews. They made a contract with this God and thought of themselves as a special, privileged group as a result. But, at base, it was an act of selfishness; creating a God that would act in their favour to the exclusion of other groups. I believe that the Jews and the Christians that followed them developed an attitude of being special and of operating in an ego-centric manner, and this feature being based on their view of a speculative God that was created just for them.
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As an atheist I take a different view of things and would say that I have developed a system that reflects my philosophy and my atheism. For example, at the racetrack I do not bet solely on one horse to win, but rather I tend to look at the race in its entirety, just as I view life. I do not concentrate on one thing for my answers and outcome, but the many. I think this philosophy of mine sets me apart from the Christian, for example, who tends to focus on the idea of one prominent feature in his life - namely his God. When I study a race I look at all of the horses running together and try and figure out what the state of things will be at the end of the race. A Christian might do things a little differently and perhaps just concentrate on one horse, just like he concentrates on his one God. Now, I am taking great liberties here as the discerning reader may appreciate. But, I believe that the characteristics and behaviour of a Believer will undoubtedly be different than mine. A Christian, for example, might be more prone to view the favourite horse in a race as a more likely possibility to win that race. He would be betting on the favourite horse as it were. I have no proof for this assumption of course since I have not put this proposition directly to any Christian that I have encountered at the racetrack. I am only suggesting that he views the world differently than I and that his mannerisms and his actions will be reflective of his personal philosophy, which is of course, based on his belief in a monotheistic entity.
Now, if you spend anytime at all at a racetrack you will know that betting the chalk horse or favourite, as it is called, is not always a wise thing to do. Yet, that is precisely what the Christian is doing. He is betting on the favourite in the race of life. I am trying to deliver a point to you and it is based on the notion of speculation and of the idea of one Being or God. The idea of speculation and of a strong belief in something, as I have already pointed out, is at the root of the faith of the belief in Christianity. The Jews created their God out of thin air and ascribed to this Being all sorts of mannerisms and were devoted to Him and feared Him all at the same time. The Jews and the modern Christians make a sort of contract with their God and they expect to live forever as a result. They believe in Him and Him only. They are fixated on this Being and in many ways are deluded in their thinking because they are not open to debate or options concerning this religious attachment. And, they are making a life long bet on the existence of their God as well. They have decided through their form of logic that God is the chosen and most wise path to follow for in that path lies Salvation and Eternity. That is the point I was making earlier about Pascal's Wager if you recall. That is why I am employing the racetrack example because many things about the Christian mind can be learned by studying something like horseracing and gambling in general. The idea of a God and of his importance is simply an expression of the Will of the human mind. Man is speculating and is concentrated in his beliefs. Not only is he speculating on the notion of a mystical Being, but also in the idea of an after life as well. In God is manifested all of the wishes and beliefs that the human mind can think of. When one speaks of his God, all one is doing is placing all of his dreams and ideas into a projected figure. Man is simply idealizing and conceptualizing his world view into another object, something he refers to as a God. And, according to Feuerbach this fact explains a great deal about the Christian and his religion and his attitude. In my opinion, for example, Christians and Jews think that they are special as a consequence of their unique relationship with their God. An atheist like myself does not buy into this notion of course and is a great cause for discord between myself and the believers. I tend to believe, for example, that all people are equal, and that some are not more special or more important, or even " better " than others. Importantly, for me though is the idea of understanding how one's religious beliefs and attitudes can explain how one deals with his religion and how he conducts his business in a place like a racetrack.
Religion also explains how man becomes focused or even obsessed with one idea and the importance of that idea over all others. According to the religionist, his God is the only god that matters, since in his mind, he has found the truth in all things as manifested in his God; his all-knowing and omnipotent and omniscient God. Now once again, being the honest person that I am, what I am doing here really is just taking shots at the religionists. I do so because I consider their life long wager to be faulty in its logic. As stated earlier, I really do not know what is in their mind when they conjure up a bet and consider all of the possibilities that confront them. I am suggesting, however, by way of the racetrack example, that a Christian might look favourably upon the most-liked horse in the race because that is what his philosophy teaches him to do. If he is a true believer in the Christ he might almost be forced to bet on the favourite just to maintain his credibility as a Christian and a believer in monotheism. His religion may have taught him to bet on the favourite if you will. I am suggesting, of course that one who deviates from this practice is either a dishonest Christian or a non-believer. Now, a situation may arise where a Christian decides to bet on a long shot in the race anyway. I can think of a couple of reasons why he might do this. One would be his attachment to speculation. Speculation on a long shot might arise from his fantasy beliefs in the Christian God. He might make the connection that the fantastic is possible and that he will win the longshot because maybe God will allow him to win. It is the same mentality, of course, as expecting to win the big lottery. I do not think Christians are immune from betting on lotteries that may alter their lives dramatically, especially if they are from the poorer classes. What might be the problems that would confront our Christian bettor, however, you might enquire? The most important thing of course is that he cannot, no matter how hard he tries, predict with any kind of accuracy the outcome of any race of any kind, even if he is trained to believe in the favourite winning things which he learned from the belief in his God. But, his belief is so strong that he will act in ways that expose his belief in a mystical God. This means that even if he bets on a long shot and that horse wins for him, the experience will not alter his belief in his God and that is because his faith is so strong. He will rationalize the situation just like he rationalizes everything else concerning his God. He might, for example, praise God for his win - his God allowed him to win that race. That is just the way the Christian mind thinks. God is everything to him and controls every aspect of his life including the business of winning and losing. Like employing Pascal's Wager he employs the tool of rationalization to explain his life and its experiences. So, what I am suggesting is that even if the Christian is not a gambler per se, he is not necessarily going to shy away from making a wager on a long shot. If he wins it is God's will.
I think though that a racetrack experience for a true Christian might possibly be a traumatic experience, however. I am talking about a man getting involved in the sport in more than a casual way of course. A racetrack experience enables a devotee to learn about risk and what the odds mean. A Christian racetrack enthusiast might begin to actually question his religion as a result of this because he will soon learn that the favourites are from being a sure thing, just like the possibility of his one and only God existing. Perhaps, his religion states that gambling is a bad thing. Well, I say to you dear reader that it may be bad for him because of the things that it may teach him. Understanding risk and how to control it may lead him into areas that would cause him to question his religion. He has been taught to be focused on the idea of one God that he must obey and listen to for direction. Maybe that is why he would be fearful of such as thing. The Christian in many ways has a closed mind and that is a result of being connected to his God. He has been taught not to stray from his religious beliefs and that learning new things may be harmful to this endeavor. He may believe in his Lord God to the utmost degree, but he cannot prove the existence of that Deity, nor can he be assured of everlasting life as a result. In short, the Christian acts in a delusional state and believes in a false notion or God. It is simply false because it cannot be proven, but he has not the time or the inclination to question this belief. The Christian lives happily in ignorance. If he is involved in a good life, one that is based on the Christian God then surely it is not in his benefit anyway to rock the proverbial boat as it were.
The Christian is not interested in the fact that you cannot predict the future. Maybe that is why he is not interested in the racetrack in a serious way and learning about losing. Losing might cause him to question his belief and the bet that he has taken with regards to Christianity, just like betting on a race and its results. It is futile to attempt to predict the future and stake your whole life on the outcome, yet that is what the Christian does with his life. But, perhaps some of you may see something in my argument here. I am talking mainly how one views the world and I believe that the atheist and the Christian tend to see things differently. I know that I cannot predict the outcome of one race to the next and I develop a philosophy and system to account for this detail. I would say that either the Christian would be afraid of racing or has been guided to stay away from things that would expose him to risk and what risk really means.

I have include the foregoing discussion about risk and the Christian mentality because I think it helps to explain my mortality, so let us stick to the facts as far as we can. I simply believe that my understanding or acceptance and appreciation of mortality is better than that of the Christian or of any other group heavily focused on the idea of an omnipotent Deity. I accept the fact that I do not know if God exists or not. In fact, is would be extremely foolish of me to decide that he was real if I could not prove it to my full satisfaction. That is the basis of my belief. I am not going to jump on any bandwagon and give some religious leader my heart and mind and my money for something that I cannot reasonably accept as truth without proof. And, that is the simple fact of defending my humanity and my understanding of it. My mortality encourages me to think since I value my life so much. Life itself is loaded with risk and the racetrack example that I supplied is only one method of understanding risk. Why would I make a bet on a race if I did not reasonably think I had a chance of winning that race based on my betting strategies? When I handicap a race I am looking at a multitude of factors. I look at these factors in their totality and make a decision. And, it is the same thing with life and death. Why would I make an irrational bet regarding religion when the stakes and the outcome of my decision is so important? Why would I believe in a mystical God which was created by a human being for his own purposes? If humans can create gods and religions then why cannot I create one as well? One that would suit my needs entirely for myself. As a selfish human being I should have that option. I think that is what atheism is - it is a rational approach to reality and the experiences of life. When you go into a supermarket to buy groceries are you going to let someone tell you what to buy, or would you rather do the shopping yourself and determine what is best for you? And, similarly at the racetrack. Do you go to the racetrack and listen to some tout or fellow bettor for advice, or would you rather figure the whole thing out for yourself and the enjoy the process as well? Do you think a Christian whose whole life is guided by a pastor or minister is capable of making decisions that reflect the real nature of the world? And, even if he does his own thinking and simply reads the Bible and believes in God can he manage life properly if he believes in a mystical, speculative God? If he is beholden to a single God how can he examine the data or evidence of life properly if it is denied to him? How does he know if another god is a better option if he doesn't know about it? How does he know if God exists or not if he doesn't even bother to think about the issue?
Finally, betting at the racetrack can be a humbling experience. As grand as my betting strategies have become they are by no means full proof. I lose often and I learn from these experiences. It can be a very unhappy experience indeed to lose when you really wanted to win, and especially when you thought you were going to win. But, that is the great lesson derived from the racetrack experience, I believe. That lesson being that it does not pay to put all of your money on one horse, as it were, because nothing is for sure as it concerns our futures. There are too many variables and unknowns to consider when we are wagering against the future. The unknown will always come out the winner, so why would you bet against it by putting all of your eggs in one basket or believing in one God, which to my mind is the same thing as betting against the future and one's own mortality? If mortality is the most important thing to a human being, then I think this thing should be protected at all costs. Think of mortality as your capital, something that you want to preserve and protect. Investing in the stock market or racing is the same thing as betting on your life. Preservation of life and capital are the same thing are they not?
Your understanding of your mortality is manifested in your sense of well-being and I believe the way to do hommage to your mortality is to respect it by not betting against it and to not fall prey to something that cannot be reasonably justified or guaranteed. You only have one mortality and my advice would be to treat it with respect that you may enjoy it to the fullest. Your mortality may or may not be accorded an afterlife. You simply do not know if this is the case or not. A rational person takes this fact into account when he conducts his life. My attitude when I go to the racetrack is one of hope. I want to win, and it is the preferred state to be in. But, this condition cannot be guaranteed. And, I accept that. A dishonest man will say that he wins everytime he goes to the racetrack. I am not going to disagree of course with the man who says he wins through the entertainment value of the experience and that the money spent is worth it. Maybe it is the same thing as the religious experience for the Christian. Who is to say for sure? A dishonest man will say that his God exists, because he believes and wants Him to. His dishonesty ( to himself ) is based on the fact that he cannot prove his case beyond a reasonable doubt. His race and bet concerning God will not be over until he dies, and only then will he discover whether or not he has won his life long bet. Does a prudent man make such a wager when so much is at stake? The condition of man is manifested in mortality, something which is material and limited in its duration. It is the only thing that man really knows. Life is valuable precisely because it is limited. I believe it is something to be protected and honored all at the same time. To bet on an afterlife is an act of unfairness to mortality because you are betting against that mortality. I say if you want to bet on the favourite in the race of life then that that thing is your very own mortality.
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Reference:
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Related videos:
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Head to Head Combat Between a Christian and an Atheist:
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Dawkins in Lynchburg VA. The God Delusion
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Christopher Hitchens: The Moral Necessity of Atheism
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This is an 8 part video. Part One is below. It is easy to link to the consequent parts of the videos.
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List of Debates concerning Atheism and the Existence of God:
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Bertrand Russell
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Above link added on April 9, 2008. The above video is an important one I feel and explains how governments act to achieve their ends. I have seen it more than once and it is worth viewing often so as not to forget what governments, even our own, our capable of.
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Economic Update: George Soros Interviewed by
Judy Woodruff.
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Who is responsible for the current crisis?
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Friday April 4, 2008
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Bloomberg.com 4/4/08
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Tuesday March 25, 2008
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Bloomberg. com 3/25/08






Monday, March 03, 2008

Winning Makes You Feel Good

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Winning Makes You Feel Good
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I don't always win at the racetrack, but when I do I like to talk about it. As you know all I bet at the races is something called a " triactor ", or if you are an American, it is called a " trifecta ". Winning a " triactor " or " trifecta " involves picking the top three finishers of a race in the exact order of their completing that race - the winning, place, and show horses, or first, second, and third. I have explained all of this before in previous posts regarding my harness racing triactor system. See my post a couple of entries down ( " Saturday Night at the Meadowlands " ) to determine how I wager at the track and what my system is composed of. It was a beautiful sunny day last Saturday and it was a racing day. I feel like I am accomplishing a great deal at this point in my life when I can jump into my new car, head out into the sunshine and spend a day at the races and come out a winner at the end of the whole process. This happened for me last weekend. I just thought I would share this good news with you and publish the results of my win. The results of the ninth race at the Meadowlands Racetrack in New Jersey on Saturday March 1st, 2008 is shown below. My selections for this race according to my handicapping methods were: 8-3-1-4-2. These were my top five horses by order of preference. I won the race because of my betting strategies that I employ. You will notice that I would have won the " superfecta " as well ( picking the top four horses in exact order ) if I had bet that race. Since we cannot bet this 10 cent wager here at the wickets I did not bet it. But, if I did I would have won another 1500 dollars or so for a ten cent bet, or various combinations thereof. N.B. The Canadian payout ( through Woodbine in Toronto ) was slightly less than the result posted below even though there is common pool wagering at the Meadowlands. And, don't forget: if you are my friend, relative, or acquaintance and are in town for whatever reason, feel free to contact me and I will come and pick you up for a night at the races. This is a standing offer of course to all concerned.
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Saturday March 1, 2008
Race Number 9
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1 Broadway Jake G Brennan 22.60 12.20 10.00
3 Winforu N D Miller 22.20 13.60
8 Whitesand Mirage Y Gingras 11.20
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Winning Owner: Odds On Racing(W-P-S Pool $122,059)$2 Exacta (Pool $110,236) (1-3) $381.20$1
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Trifecta (Pool $80,188) (1-3-8) $1,427.80
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10-Cent Superfecta (Pool $41,510) (1-3-8-4) $1,515.10$1 Pick 3 (Pool $16,855) (10-2-1) $233.80$1 Pick 4 (Pool $92,096) (5-2,10-2-1) $1,803.80$1 Pick 6 (Pool $11,192) (6-8-5-2,10-2-1) (5 of 6) $369.80Pick 6 Carryover $15,047.6
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See also related post below:
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You can see my daily comments, if any, in the Dear Diary portion of my blog. The link is directly below:
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Go
Gold Go. Hahahahahahah!!!!
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I love you George Bush, for screwing up the economy.
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Marc Faber
The Gloom, Boom, and Doom Report
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Ben Bernanke: Destroyer of Money
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